Auckland University’s latest Pension Briefing forecast that future the costs of NZ Super be less than previously estimated.
Comment by Alec Waugh, Kaspanz Chair:-
The Treasury’s latest estimates of the long-term cost of New Zealand Superannuation were released on 11 July. Despite often-gloomy predictions about the “unaffordable” NZS, what is the scale of the affordability problem? (2013) The trend of New Zealanders working longer is cutting into the costs of funding NZ Super, and those working past 65 had doubled over the last 3 decades, with it likely to double again over the 3 decades. NZ Super is taxable and the aged group is contributing in this manner, and many other ways towards reasonable fiscal outlooks and outcomes. Net costs of Super have been revised downwards in the latest revision, and this indicator counters the crisis rhetoric of many commentators, who also often use gross figures to exaggerate their costing assumptions. Remember long term projections e.g. 2050 are practically worthless as accurate assumption tools.
To reinforce Alec’s comment about the variability of long term forecasts, the forecast figure, for 2060, as a percentage of national income, was 9.7% in 2000, now changed to 6.6%! Fifty percent changes indicate the guesstimate nature of these predictions