LONGEVITY RISK: SETTING THE LONG TERM MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT RATE

The last post from ‘The Economist’ indicated that demographic factors could have a large influence on ‘the economic burden ‘ of pensions.   The below ‘white paper’ highlights some of the possible demographic changes.

Risk Management Solutions Inc, a UK company that specialises in assessing the effect of demographic changes on economic  futures has produced an exhaustive, but readable, assessment of the factors that may change life expectancy improvement.

It highlights the factors such as a plateauing of prevention of cardiovascular deaths, the failure of expected improvements in cancer survival to materialise and that obesity levels acceleration and economic recession may result in lesser declines in mortality than recently experienced.

I have been concerned, as a Medical Scientist, that the assumption that life expectancy can go on increasing for ever, is scientifically implausible.   This report itemises reasons as to why there may be a change in life expectancy improvement, and looks at seven scenarios which might influence that change.   The report concludes that life expectancy improvements will continue, but not necessarily at historical rates, and gives lots of information as to why an automatic assumption of increased life expectancy should not be assumed.

Well worth reading HERE

Stephen Wealthall

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